
Texas Rangers
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Seattle Mariners
+115O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)The Seattle Mariners have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob deGrom in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Evan Carter has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineThe Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-135)Out of all the teams today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Cal Raleigh’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 90.8-mph figure last season has lowered to 83.8-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
