
Los Angeles Angels
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New York Yankees
+165O/U: 11
(-110/-110)-190
(-110/-110)-190
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Given that flyball batters have a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz and his 51.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s outing matching up with 3 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Jo Adell is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Given the 1.77 gap between Luis Gil’s 6.34 K/9 and his 8.11 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see positive regression the rest of the season.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Ben Rice has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97-mph average to last season’s 93.3-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-190)The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.65 Units / 87% ROI)
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)Josh Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+8.70 Units / 124% ROI)
