Check Out Tigers vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Tips - Wednesday April 1st, 2026

-150O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+130

Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)
Compared to the average starter, Tarik Skubal has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
In today’s game, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.7% rate (96th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
Given the 0.78 discrepancy between Zac Gallen’s 4.92 ERA and his 4.14 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and figures to see better results in the future.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 18.7% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 141 games (+9.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.70 Units / 119% ROI)

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