Mets vs Cardinals Betting Guide – 3/31/26

New York Mets

@

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 62.7% of the time, placing in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme groundball batters like Marcus Semien generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ranking in the 6th percentile, Andre Pallante has compiled a 15.7% strikeout rate since the start of last season.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Victor Scott II’s 4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)