Winning Probability and Match Preview for Tigers vs D-Backs - 3/30/2026

-105O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-115

Justin Verlander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Justin Verlander’s 2431-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 80th percentile out of all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Riley Greene’s 17% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
It may be smart to expect worse results for the Detroit Tigers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Mike Soroka – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Generating 14.7 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Michael Soroka checks in at the 22nd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+325/-480)
Corbin Carroll’s quickness has dropped off this year. His 29.84 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.64 ft/sec now.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 74 games at home (+15.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 103 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)

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