Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Pirates vs Braves Match – Sunday, September 28, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the third game of their series on September 28, 2025. Both teams are having disappointing seasons, with the Braves sitting at 75-86 and the Pirates at 71-90. The Braves are not contending for a playoff spot, but they come into this matchup as significant favorites, especially with their established ace Charlie Morton on the mound.

In their previous encounter, the Braves managed to secure a win against the Pirates, continuing a trend of inconsistency in Pittsburgh’s performance. Morton’s season has been a tough one, as reflected in his 9-11 record and a troubling 5.89 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, evidenced by his 4.39 xFIP, which indicates he might outperform his current numbers moving forward. Morton is expected to go around five innings, projecting 2.6 earned runs, 6.3 strikeouts, and a concerning 4.7 hits allowed.

On the other hand, Johan Oviedo has been a bright spot for the Pirates, boasting a solid 3.57 ERA with a perfect 2-0 record this season, although his 4.80 xFIP raises some warning flags about his sustainability. Oviedo’s projections show he may struggle against a Braves offense that ranks 13th in the league. The Braves also possess the 3rd highest walk rate in MLB, which could lead to plenty of opportunities against Oviedo, a pitcher who has had control issues this season with a 13.3 BB%.

With the Braves’ offense ranking 11th in home runs and facing a Pirates team that has struggled significantly, they are favored with a high implied total of 4.37 runs. This matchup presents a favorable opportunity for Atlanta to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s challenges, making this a key game for bettors to consider.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+175)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Rafael Flores).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton will “start” for Atlanta Braves in today’s game but will server as an opener and may not go more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves hitters as a unit rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (6th-) as it relates to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+16.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 143 games (+24.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 75% ROI)