Find the Official Lineup for Twins vs Phillies – 9/27/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on September 27, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, the stakes are high for the Phillies, who boast a strong 95-65 record this season. They have already secured their spot in the playoffs, while the Twins sit at 69-91, struggling to find their footing. In their last meeting, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their dominant form.

Projected to start for the Phillies is Ranger Suarez, a left-handed pitcher who ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. With a solid 12-7 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA, Suarez is poised to continue his strong performance. He is averaging 5.8 innings per start and projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs today, but his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.4 walks makes for a slightly concerning combination.

On the mound for the Twins will be Mick Abel, a right-handed pitcher whose season has been less than stellar. With a 2-4 record and a dismal 7.36 ERA, Abel has struggled significantly, projecting to pitch only 4.3 innings today while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. His situation is compounded by the fact that his advanced projections indicate he might experience some improvement, but it remains to be seen if that translates into on-field success.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 3rd in MLB, bolstered by a powerhouse lineup that includes their best hitter, who has been hot lately with a .500 batting average over the past week. Conversely, the Twins rank 17th, with their top hitter managing only a .438 average in the same span. With the Phillies favored heavily in this matchup and a high implied team total of 4.93 runs, the smart money could certainly lean towards Philadelphia as they look to capitalize on their current momentum.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Mick Abel – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Mick Abel has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Royce Lewis has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ranger Suarez’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.2% vs. 49.1% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Alec Bohm has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Philadelphia Phillies hitters have performed well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking best in the majors.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+16.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+11.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)