See the Starting Lineup for Rays vs Blue Jays – September 27, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Blue Jays, boasting a strong 92-68 record, are enjoying a successful season and rank 4th in MLB in offensive production. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at 77-83, have struggled throughout the year. In their last matchup, the Blue Jays emerged victorious, adding to their momentum as they push for a strong finish.

In this American League East clash, Toronto is projected to start Trey Yesavage, who, despite a below-average 5.00 ERA, ranks as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His 3.39 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Yesavage’s projections indicate he will pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters, although he has a high walk rate of 12.5%. This could be a concern against a Rays offense that ranks 4th in the league for fewest walks.

On the other side, Tampa Bay will counter with Joe Boyle, who has a 4.40 ERA and a 1-3 record this season. His projections are not favorable either, as he is expected to pitch 4.5 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out just 3.9 batters. The Blue Jays’ offense, ranked 1st in MLB for batting average, poses a significant challenge for Boyle.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, and with the Blue Jays favored at -160, they are projected to score 4.68 runs, while the Rays have an implied total of 3.82 runs. With the Blue Jays’ strong lineup and the Rays’ inconsistent performance, expect Toronto to capitalize on the matchup and continue their push toward the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Boyle has used his off-speed and breaking balls 6.1% more often this year (49.3%) than he did last season (43.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  In his previous outing, Trey Yesavage turned in a great performance and compiled 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Daulton Varsho is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 53 games at home (+17.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI)