Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-110
On September 25, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium in the third game of their series. The Angels (71-87) have had a rough season, while the Royals (79-79) are faring a bit better with an average record. The stakes are low for both teams, but this matchup could be critical for the Royals as they aim to finish strong.
In their previous game, the Royals emerged victorious, which provided them with some momentum heading into this matchup. The Angels will rely on Mitch Farris, who has struggled this year, evident from his 1-2 record and poor 6.52 ERA. However, his 4.80 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could show improvement. Farris projects to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 4.1 batters, putting him at a disadvantage against the Royals’ offense, which ranks 20th in the league.
On the other hand, Michael Lorenzen is set to take the mound for the Royals. With a 6-11 record and a more respectable 4.70 ERA, Lorenzen projects to pitch about 5.1 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. While his performance has been average, he faces an Angels offense that ranks 24th in the league, particularly struggling with a dismal 29th ranking in team batting average.
The projections suggest that the Angels could capitalize on Farris’s high flyball rate against a Royals team that has struggled to hit for power, ranking 26th in home runs this season. Additionally, Farris’s high walk rate may not be as detrimental against the Royals, who rank 2nd lowest in walks taken. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup could be closer than anticipated. The betting markets reflect this sentiment, with both teams at a moneyline of -110. With the Angels boasting a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, it will be interesting to see how they perform.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael Lorenzen has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.4% more often this year (60.1%) than he did last year (51.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) implies that Randal Grichuk has experienced some negative variance this year with his .226 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Mitch Farris – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)Out of all starters, Mitch Farris’s fastball velocity of 89.4 mph grades out in the 7th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Jo Adell has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 18.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Los Angeles Angels (27.6% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 32 games (+17.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 139 games (+19.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Michael Lorenzen has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.60 Units / 57% ROI)