See the Updated Player Rankings for Rays vs Orioles – September 25, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the 2025 season draws to a close, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 25 in a crucial matchup between American League East rivals. Both teams are currently out of playoff contention, with the Orioles sitting at 74-84 and the Rays at 77-81. The stakes are high as each team looks to finish strong, but the Rays have shown more consistency this season.

In their previous encounter, the Rays claimed a close victory, setting the stage for this third game of the series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Cade Povich is projected to take the mound for the Orioles. His season has been challenging, with a 3-8 record and a subpar ERA of 5.06, ranking him as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB. While his xFIP of 3.93 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, his ability to limit earned runs has not been stellar, as he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over an average of 5.1 innings.

On the other hand, the Rays will counter with Drew Rasmussen, who has had an impressive season with a 10-5 record and an ERA of 2.80, making him the 20th best starter in MLB. While his projections suggest that he could be in for a rough outing, he still poses a significant threat against an Orioles offense that ranks 21st overall and 24th in batting average.

Given the projections and the performances of both starters, the Rays appear to have the edge in this matchup. With their bullpen ranked 8th, compared to the Orioles’ 22nd, Tampa Bay’s depth could play a pivotal role in this game. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. As both teams push to end the season on a high note, this game promises to be an intriguing battle.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Yandy Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Lowe, Christopher Morel, Carson Williams, Everson Pereira).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Cade Povich’s 91.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph drop off from last season’s 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Dylan Beavers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles batters as a group rank among the best in baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+25.63 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 147 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Dylan Beavers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.10 Units / 152% ROI)