Player Stats for Tigers vs Guardians – September 24th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on September 24, 2025, both teams find themselves with identical records of 85-72, positioning them as competitive forces in the American League Central. With the Guardians winning the previous matchup 5-2, they look to continue their momentum against a Tigers squad that has also demonstrated resilience this season.

Cleveland’s projected starter, Tanner Bibee, enters with a mixed season, holding an 11-11 record and a 4.34 ERA. However, his 3.64 xERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky, hinting at better performance ahead. In his last outing, Bibee showed promise, pitching 6 innings with just 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts, and only 4 hits allowed. He projects to throw around 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which is a solid expectation.

On the other side, Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, with an 8-14 record and a 4.60 ERA, has similarly struggled with consistency. His 3.75 xFIP indicates he has also faced some misfortune this season. In his last start, Flaherty managed 5 innings with 1 earned run but battled control issues, allowing 4 walks.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 29th in MLB, and their struggles are evident in their low team batting average and poor offensive rankings. In contrast, the Tigers boast a 12th best offense, including a solid performance in home runs, ranking 10th. This disparity may tilt the game in favor of the Tigers, especially considering the Guardians’ offensive woes and the projections that favor them at a moneyline of -150.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jack Flaherty has utilized his slider 5.4% less often this year (23.6%) than he did last year (29%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Spencer Torkelson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Detroit Tigers with a 24.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2243-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a notable 118-rpm drop off from last season’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Bo Naylor has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .289 figure is quite a bit lower than his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+16.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 125 games (+13.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Wenceel Perez has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 50% ROI)