Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Brewers vs Padres – 9/23/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park on September 23, 2025, they come off a thrilling victory against the Brewers, winning 5-4 in their last meeting. The Padres, with an 86-71 record, are in a solid position, competing strongly but not quite in contention for the division title. Meanwhile, the Brewers, boasting a 95-62 record, have had a remarkable season and are looking to maintain their momentum.

On the mound, the Padres are set to start Randy Vasquez, who, despite ranking as the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 3.94 ERA this year. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his 5.56 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead. Vasquez’s last outing was less than stellar, going only 2 innings and allowing 4 earned runs, which raises concerns about his ability to go deep into this game.

In contrast, the Brewers will counter with Bruce Zimmermann, whose projections are similarly underwhelming, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs over 4.7 innings. Both pitchers face offenses that have contrasting strengths. The Padres rank 10th in MLB in team batting average, while the Brewers lead the league with the 2nd best batting average. However, both teams have issues with home runs, ranking 29th and 20th, respectively.

Given that both teams have relatively equal moneyline odds of -110, this game is expected to be competitive. With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may have an edge late in the game if the starters falter. Ultimately, this matchup presents an intriguing scenario where the Padres might outperform their projected win probability, thanks to their strong bullpen and the potential vulnerabilities of the Brewers’ pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Randy Vasquez has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity this season, from 85.8 mph last year to 83 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+11.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 118 games (+27.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)