New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
(+100/-120)+180
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 18, 2025, the stakes are significant, especially given the Yankees’ strong position in the American League East. Currently, the Yankees hold a record of 85-67, showcasing a solid season, while the Orioles sit at 72-80, struggling to find their footing.
In their last outing, the Yankees continued their momentum by securing a win, further solidifying their playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the Orioles are looking to make an impact despite their below-average season. This matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Cade Povich for the Orioles and Max Fried for the Yankees. Povich, ranked 131st among MLB starters, has had a challenging year with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 5.05. His projections indicate he may struggle, averaging just 4.6 innings pitched and allowing 2.8 earned runs today.
On the other hand, Fried stands out as an elite pitcher, ranked 7th in MLB with a remarkable 17-5 record and a 3.03 ERA. His ability to strike out batters—projecting 6.1 strikeouts today—could pose a significant challenge for a struggling Orioles lineup that ranks 20th in overall offense. Despite their home run capability, they are hindered by a poor team batting average of .230, which ranks 23rd in the league.
The Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in home runs and 8th in runs scored. With an implied team total of 5.17 runs for this game, they are favored to continue their dominance against an Orioles team that has seen better days. Given these dynamics, the Yankees are positioned well to capitalize on their strengths, making this matchup one to watch for sports bettors.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-205)Among every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Giancarlo Stanton has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 103.1-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Cade Povich – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cade Povich to throw 81 pitches in this game (2nd-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Luis Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Typically, hitters like Luis Vazquez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Fried.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 25.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 147 games (+19.43 Units / 12% ROI)
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+13.20 Units / 165% ROI)