Recommended Player Prop Bets for Rays vs White Sox – Thursday September 11, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Tampa Bay Rays in a pivotal matchup on September 11, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field. After facing off yesterday, where the Rays secured a decisive victory, the stakes feel heightened, especially given the contrasting fortunes of these two teams. The White Sox, with a dismal record of 56-90, are struggling this season, ranking 28th in MLB offense. In contrast, the Rays sit at 72-73, showing a more competitive edge, particularly with a 14th rank in team offensive metrics.

Shane Smith, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a challenging season, holding a 5-7 record with a respectable 3.95 ERA, though his 4.47 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. Smith’s high walk rate of 9.8% could prove problematic against the Rays, who have demonstrated a low-walk approach, ranking 4th least in MLB. This matchup may tilt in Smith’s favor if the Rays struggle to capitalize on his control issues.

On the other hill, Ian Seymour, the Rays’ left-handed starter, boasts an impressive 2.89 ERA and a 3-1 record. Seymour’s ability to limit runs is supported by his solid projection of allowing only 2.3 earned runs on average today. With the Rays’ offense, which ranks 7th in MLB batting average, they are poised to exploit Smith’s weaknesses.

Despite the current odds favoring the Rays with a moneyline of -145, the White Sox’s capable bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB, could give them a fighting chance if Smith can keep the game close early on. As both teams look to gain traction, this game presents an interesting dynamic to watch as the season winds down.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ian Seymour must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 64.3% of the time, placing in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Hunter Feduccia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In the past 14 days, Hunter Feduccia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Shane Smith’s 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 78th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Will Robertson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Will Robertson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Curtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 74 of their last 121 games (+17.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 137 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Chase Meidroth has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)