Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-185
The San Diego Padres host the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park on September 9, 2025, for the second game of their series. The Padres enter this matchup with a solid record of 79-65, showcasing an above-average season that has them in contention for a playoff spot. Conversely, the Reds sit at 72-72, marking an average campaign. In their previous encounter, the Padres edged the Reds 4-3, continuing their momentum as they seek to solidify their position.
On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Michael King, who has enjoyed a strong season with a 4-2 record and an impressive 2.81 ERA. King ranks as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system, which underscores his effectiveness this season. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today, as he is likely to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 1.7 earned runs. His last outing was abbreviated, going just two innings with two earned runs, which raises questions about his stamina.
Zack Littell will take the hill for the Reds. He has a 9-8 record and a solid 3.81 ERA, but his performance has not been as consistent as King’s. Littell’s last start was particularly rough, as he allowed five earned runs in just four innings pitched. His projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is below average.
Both teams’ offenses have been average this season—ranked 16th and 18th in MLB respectively. However, the Padres hold a distinct advantage with their bullpen, ranked 9th in the league, compared to the Reds’ 19th rank. Given the Padres’ recent success and King’s overall performance this season, they are poised to capitalize on this matchup, making them the favorites to win again today.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Zack Littell’s slider rate has dropped by 6.1% from last season to this one (39.9% to 33.8%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)TJ Friedl has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .265 mark is considerably higher than his .236 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Michael King’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last season (93 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the San Diego Padres offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 102 games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 140 games (+26.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)