Betting Odds and Picks for Rays vs White Sox – 9/09/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on September 9, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams are coming off contrasting results. The White Sox recently secured a win against the Rays, triumphing 6-4, while the Rays are looking to bounce back after a narrow 2-1 loss in their last outing.

Currently, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the American League Central with a disappointing record of 55-89, marking a challenging season. In contrast, the Rays, with a record of 71-72, are positioned in the middle of the pack in the American League East. Despite their struggles, the White Sox have shown some resilience, as evidenced by their last victory, and will look to leverage that momentum.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Yoendrys Gomez, who has had a mixed season. Although he has a respectable 3-2 record, his 4.79 ERA indicates that he has struggled at times. Gomez projects to pitch around 5.0 innings today, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, which may not be enough against a solid Rays lineup. The projections suggest that he could be in for a tough outing, especially considering his high walk rate of 13.0%.

Adrian Houser, starting for the Rays, boasts a much stronger 3.01 ERA and an 8-4 record this season. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Gomez, averaging 5.4 innings with 2.4 earned runs allowed. While Houser’s strikeout numbers aren’t overwhelming, he has shown the ability to limit damage effectively.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 28th in MLB, struggling to find consistency at the plate. In contrast, the Rays have a middle-of-the-road offense, ranking 15th overall, with a particularly strong batting average of .265, placing them 9th in the league. The White Sox will need their best hitters to step up if they hope to overcome the odds against a more balanced Rays squad.

As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors may find value in the matchup, with the White Sox as underdogs at +115. With both teams looking to make their mark, fans can expect an intriguing contest in Chicago.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Adrian Houser is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Junior Caminero has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Yoendrys Gomez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Yoendrys Gomez faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Chase Meidroth tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Curtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 96 games (+15.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 118 games (+14.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)