D-Backs vs Giants Betting Guide and Expert Picks September 8th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of an average season. The Giants currently sit at 72-71, while the Diamondbacks are just a game behind at 72-72. This National League West matchup is crucial for both teams, as they look to gain momentum down the stretch. In their last game, both clubs struggled, with the Giants narrowly losing to the Diamondbacks 4-3 and Arizona falling to another opponent by a score of 7-4.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start right-hander Logan Webb, who is ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, showcasing his elite status. This season, Webb holds a solid 13-9 record with a 3.17 ERA and has been particularly effective at limiting earned runs, projected to allow just 2.0 today. Conversely, Arizona counters with Nabil Crismatt, who has had success early this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.14 ERA. However, Crismatt’s underlying metrics suggest he may be overperforming, making him a target for a potent Giants offense that ranks 20th in MLB.

While the Giants’ offense has struggled with a low team batting average, they will need to take advantage of Crismatt today. With a Game Total of just 7.5 runs, oddsmakers view this matchup as low-scoring, but the Giants boast a high implied team total of 4.28 runs. Given their solid starting pitcher and the Diamondbacks’ recent struggles, San Francisco looks to capitalize on this opportunity for a much-needed victory.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nabil Crismatt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nabil Crismatt must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 65.7% of the time, placing in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Extreme flyball bats like Ildemaro Vargas are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Gabriel Moreno has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Among all starters, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2116 rpm ranks in the 14th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games at home (+12.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 108 games (+16.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)