Read the Dodgers vs Pirates Betting Guide – September 3, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 3, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Pirates, sitting at 62-77, are having a disappointing season, while the Dodgers, with a record of 78-60, are looking to solidify their position as playoff contenders. In their last encounter, Pittsburgh pulled off a thrilling 9-7 victory, which could boost their confidence heading into this matchup.

The pitching duel features Braxton Ashcraft taking the mound for the Pirates and Emmet Sheehan for the Dodgers. Ashcraft has been a pleasant surprise this season, boasting a 4-2 record and a stellar 2.58 ERA, ranking him as the 64th best starter in MLB. However, his projections suggest he may struggle today, with an average expected performance of just 4.3 innings and 2.3 earned runs. In contrast, Sheehan, ranked 44th among starting pitchers, comes off an impressive outing where he tossed 7 innings with no earned runs. Although he projects to pitch only slightly longer than Ashcraft, his ERA of 3.56 indicates he has been effective this year.

Offensively, the stark contrast between the two squads is evident. The Dodgers showcase a powerful lineup ranked 3rd in MLB, including their best hitter who has racked up 46 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates rank 29th in offense, struggling significantly with just 100 home runs, the fewest in MLB. This makes for an intriguing matchup, as Ashcraft’s high groundball rate could provide some protection against the Dodgers’ power-hitting prowess.

With the game total set at an average of 8.5 runs, the projections imply that the Pirates’ offense may face a tough task against Sheehan today. The Dodgers are favored in this contest, but don’t count the Pirates out, especially with the momentum from their last victory.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Shohei Ohtani’s 97.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 98th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Andy Pages is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  Compared to the average hurler, Braxton Ashcraft has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -16.9 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Joey Bart has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (84th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 102 games (+22.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)