Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
(-105/-115)-105
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 2, 2025, they come off a commanding victory, having defeated the Mariners 10-2 in their last matchup. This game marks the second in a pivotal series between two teams vying for postseason positioning, with the Mariners currently holding a slight edge in the standings at 73-65 compared to the Rays’ 68-69 record.
Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for the Rays, is having an impressive season, ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. With a solid Win/Loss record of 10-5 and an excellent ERA of 2.64, he has been a key contributor to the Rays’ rotation. However, projections indicate he may struggle today, as he is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out only 4.6 batters on average.
On the other side, Bryan Woo takes the mound for the Mariners, boasting a slightly better ranking at 12th among MLB starters. With a 12-7 record and a stellar ERA of 2.95, Woo has also shown resilience, projecting to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. Both pitchers are right-handed and will face off against lineups that have shown contrasting offensive capabilities this season.
The Rays have an average offense, ranking 15th overall, but they excel in batting average, sitting 9th in the league. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense is 12th overall but struggles with batting average, ranking 21st. This discrepancy could play a crucial role in today’s match.
Betting markets have set the Rays’ moneyline at +100, suggesting a close contest. Given the projections and recent performances, Tampa Bay may have a path to capitalize on their home-field advantage, potentially defying expectations in this matchup. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the stage is set for what could be a tightly contested battle.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)Tallying 19 outs per game per started this year on average, Bryan Woo checks in at the 98th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.3% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Over the last 7 days, Yandy Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2H MoneylineThe Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 118 games (+11.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 130 games (+11.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 68% ROI)