Expert Picks and Betting Line for Red Sox vs Orioles – Wednesday August 27th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

On August 27, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The Red Sox have been riding high, coming off a resounding 5-0 victory over the Orioles in their last game, further solidifying their above-average season with a record of 73-60. Meanwhile, the Orioles, struggling with a 60-72 record, are looking to turn things around after their recent loss, which left them searching for answers.

The pitching matchup features the left-handed Dietrich Enns for the Orioles and the right-handed Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. Enns has had his share of challenges this season, evidenced by his 4.97 ERA and a recent start where he allowed 7 earned runs over just 4 innings. Conversely, Bello comes into this game on a high note, having pitched a complete game shutout on August 22, where he allowed no earned runs and struck out 5 batters. His current ERA of 3.07 ranks him as an above-average pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, where he sits at #76 among approximately 350 pitchers.

Offensively, the disparity between these two teams is glaring. The Red Sox feature the 6th best offense in MLB this season, while the Orioles find themselves ranked 17th. The projections suggest the Red Sox are likely to score around 4.78 runs today, while the Orioles are pegged at a lower 4.22 runs.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this matchup is shaping up to favor the Red Sox. However, given the recent performance of both teams, the Orioles may present value as underdogs with a moneyline of +115, especially when considering the potential for an upset against a Red Sox team that may be due for a regression.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #3 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  As it relates to his home runs, Roman Anthony has suffered from bad luck this year. His 13.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Boston Red Sox have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 11.8° mark is among the lowest in MLB this year (#28 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Roansy Contreras – Over/Under Strikeouts
  With a 0.9 gap between Roansy Contreras’s 7.38 K/9 and his 6.48 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see worse results in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Jeremiah Jackson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 44% ROI)