Review Betting Odds and Picks for Brewers vs Reds – Saturday, August 16, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 16, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. In their last matchup, the Reds fell short, losing 10-8 to the Brewers, who are enjoying a stellar season with a record of 77-44. The Reds, at 64-59, are performing above average but face an uphill battle in this highly competitive matchup.

Cincinnati’s Zack Littell is projected to take the mound, bringing a 9-8 record and a solid 3.60 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky, as his 4.19 xFIP indicates potential for decline. Littell has struggled with strikeouts, averaging just 3.6 per game, which may be a concern against a Brewers offense that is not easy to strike out, ranking as the 6th least strikeout-prone in the league.

Quinn Priester will start for Milwaukee, boasting an impressive 11-2 record and a great 3.49 ERA. Although Priester’s projections suggest he might allow a couple of earned runs, his recent performance has left something to be desired, having given up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last start.

Offensively, the Brewers rank as the 8th best in MLB, with their best hitter performing exceptionally over the past week, including a remarkable 0.524 batting average and 12 RBIs. In contrast, the Reds sit at 18th in offensive rankings, despite having some decent recent performances.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors will find this matchup intriguing, especially with Cincinnati’s implied team total of 4.39 runs indicating they may have the potential to put up a fight against Milwaukee’s robust pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Quinn Priester will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his home runs, Christian Yelich has been lucky this year. His 30.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2013 rpm grades out in the 7th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds projected offense projects as the 5th-worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 98 games (+27.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 85 games (+30.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)