Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-140
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 12, 2025, in a crucial National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently sitting at 74-44, are enjoying a strong season and are well-positioned for a playoff push. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 51-69, marking a disappointing year. The teams faced off just yesterday, with the Brewers securing a decisive 7-1 victory.
Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, boasting a solid 13-5 record and a commendable 3.03 ERA. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression. Peralta’s ability to strike out hitters (7.2 strikeouts projected today) will be tested against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in MLB. This matchup favors Peralta, especially since the Pirates have hit only 84 home runs this season, the fewest in the league.
On the other side, Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ ace, is having an impressive year with a 1.94 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 2nd best among starting pitchers. He’s projected to allow just 1.8 earned runs today, which is elite. However, Skenes faces a Brewers lineup that ranks 3rd in team batting average, and they have shown a knack for getting on base.
Despite the projections indicating a close contest, the Brewers’ superior offensive capabilities and Peralta’s favorable matchup against a weak Pirates lineup suggest that Milwaukee has the upper hand. With the Game Total set at a low 6.5 runs, bettors should consider the Brewers’ chances to win, especially given their strong recent performance and the Pirates’ ongoing struggles.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 19.9% more often this season (52.3%) than he did last year (32.4%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)Henry Davis has averaged 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)Among every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)William Contreras’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Milwaukee Brewers bats as a group grade out 30th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.5% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 63 games (+28.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 108 games (+22.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.75 Units / 96% ROI)