Player Insights for Rays vs Mariners – 8/09/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners, currently in a strong position with a record of 64-53, will host the Tampa Bay Rays, who sit at 57-60, on August 9, 2025. This matchup is pivotal as the Mariners continue to push for a playoff spot, while the Rays are struggling to find consistency. In their last encounter, the Mariners edged out the Rays 3-2, a result that further highlighted Tampa Bay’s struggles.

Logan Evans is slated to start for the Mariners, bringing a mixed bag of performance this season. With a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.30, Evans has been deemed one of the lower-tier pitchers in MLB, ranked 260th out of approximately 350. His projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could be problematic against the Rays.

On the other side, Joe Boyle will take the mound for the Rays. Despite his impressive ERA of 2.30, Boyle’s xFIP indicates he may be due for regression, as it sits significantly higher at 4.62. He projects to pitch only 4.5 innings, which may expose Tampa Bay’s bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB.

Offensively, the Mariners boast a powerhouse lineup, ranking 3rd in home runs and 11th in overall offensive performance. With their best hitter recently performing at a high level, recording 4 RBIs and 2 home runs in their last five games, they have the potential to capitalize on Boyle’s high flyball rate. In contrast, the Rays’ offense ranks 16th overall and has shown inconsistency, especially against power pitching.

As the Mariners look to build on their recent victory and bolster their playoff chances, they enter this game as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, indicating a solid chance to claim another win against the struggling Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Joe Boyle has utilized his slider 6.1% less often this season (32.9%) than he did last season (39%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.9) may lead us to conclude that Junior Caminero has experienced some positive variance this year with his 39.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Logan Evans’s 87-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 1st percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 108 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+17.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)