Nationals vs Giants Picks and Betting Tips – August 9th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Giants, with a record of 59-57, are experiencing an average campaign, while the Nationals sit at 45-70, firmly entrenched in the lower echelons of the league.

In their previous matchup, the Giants edged out the Nationals, a pivotal win as they aim to build momentum in this series. For today’s game, San Francisco will send left-handed pitcher Carson Whisenhunt to the mound, who has shown some promise this season, boasting a 1-0 record and an ERA of 4.35. However, his 5.10 xFIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain this level of performance. Whisenhunt’s low strikeout rate (16.3% K%) could be a concern against a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Washington will counter with right-hander Brad Lord, who has been somewhat effective with a solid ERA of 3.42. However, projections suggest that he has been a bit fortunate this year, with a SIERA of 3.94. Lord’s ability to generate ground balls (50% GB%) could play to his advantage against a Giants lineup ranked 24th in offensive production.

Despite their struggles, the Giants are favored in this matchup, with a moneyline of -155 suggesting a win probability of about 59%. San Francisco’s offense has been underwhelming, ranking 24th in MLB, but with home-field advantage and a competitive pitching matchup, they have the opportunity to secure another victory against a struggling Nationals team. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both offenses.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Bradley Lord’s high usage rate of his fastball (66.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jacob Young’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 79.7-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Projected catcher Riley Adams profiles as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Andrew Knizner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.239) implies that Andrew Knizner has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .164 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Francisco Giants bats as a group grade out 25th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.32 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Jacob Young has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)