Learn About Nationals vs Giants Picks and Betting Trends – Friday August 08, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

San Francisco Giants

On August 8, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park for the first game of their series. The Giants currently sit with a record of 58-57, marking an average season, while the Nationals are struggling significantly at 45-69. The Giants are coming off a victory where they beat the Nationals 4-2 in their last matchup, while the Nationals recently faced a blowout loss, being shut out 6-0.

For this game, San Francisco is projected to start left-handed pitcher Matt Gage, who has yet to make a start this season but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA across 13 relief appearances. Gage’s last outing, on July 27, saw him go one inning without allowing any earned runs. His low strikeout rate (19.0 K%) might hinder him against a Nationals lineup that doesn’t strike out often. However, his groundball tendencies could play into his favor against Washington’s offense, which has struggled to show power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

The Nationals will counter with right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin, who has had a more eventful year as he’s made 23 starts with an 8-6 record and a 4.89 ERA. Irvin had a rough outing in his last game, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits over just 4 innings. With his projected average of 5.4 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs allowed, his performance will be critical, especially given that the Nationals rank 23rd in MLB for overall offense.

The Giants have been favored as they look to improve on their 16th-ranked bullpen, which has been performing at an average level, while the Nationals’ bullpen is ranked 9th, showcasing their reliability. Overall, with Gage’s recent strong performance and Irvin’s struggles, the Giants could leverage their pitching advantage to secure a win.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Jake Irvin’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.2 mph this year (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brady House has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+145)
  The Washington Nationals projected offense grades out as the 5th-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Matt Gage may not stay on the mound for more than a couple innings considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Heliot Ramos has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.6% Barrel% of the San Francisco Giants grades them out as the #25 club in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.40 Units / 94% ROI)