Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants
(-105/-115)-155
On August 8, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Giants sitting at 58-57 and the Nationals at 45-69. The Giants have had an average season, while the Nationals are enduring a dismal campaign. The Giants enter this matchup fresh off a victory against the Nationals, winning 4-2 in their last encounter, while Washington is reeling after a heavy 6-0 loss.
San Francisco will send left-handed pitcher Matt Gage to the mound, who has had an abbreviated outing in his last start on July 27, throwing just 1 inning with no earned runs. However, Gage’s projections are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 3.1 innings today while allowing an average of 1.4 earned runs, and he struggles with hits and strikeouts. On the other side, the Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough go lately, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 innings in his last start on August 2. Despite having an 8-6 record this season, Irvin’s ERA of 4.89 suggests he is among the weaker pitchers in the league.
Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, while the Nationals are just a spot ahead at 23rd. Both teams have underwhelming power numbers, with the Giants ranking 26th in home runs and the Nationals at 27th. However, the Nationals do boast a potent stolen base attack, ranking 8th in the league, which could provide them with some opportunities.
With the Giants listed as betting favorites at -155, the projections suggest they could secure a win against a struggling Nationals squad. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup, but with both teams’ struggles, fans should expect a closely contested game.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Jake Irvin’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.2 mph this year (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Daylen Lile has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+135)The Washington Nationals projected offense grades out as the 5th-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Kai-Wei Teng – Over/Under Pitching OutsKai-Wei Teng has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 17.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Heliot Ramos has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 7.6% Barrel% of the San Francisco Giants grades them out as the #25 club in the game this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Daylen Lile – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)