Cleveland Guardians
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-175
As the New York Mets prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 6, 2025, they’ll be looking to bounce back after a narrow 3-2 loss in their previous matchup. Currently, the Mets sit at 63-51, enjoying a solid season, while the Guardians are hovering at 58-55, having an average year. This Interleague series has seen the Mets struggle slightly following their last game, which could add some pressure as they aim to reclaim momentum.
On the mound, the Mets are projected to start David Peterson, who has had a commendable season with a 2.83 ERA, ranking him as the 116th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite a record of 7-4 and solid underlying metrics, projections suggest he may be due for some regression. Peterson’s last outing saw him allow just two earned runs over six innings, a positive sign as he approaches this matchup. However, he faces a challenge in Gavin Williams, who has been performing well for the Guardians, boasting a 3.33 ERA and a higher ranking of 76th among MLB starters. Williams threw a gem in his last start, pitching six innings without allowing any earned runs.
Offensively, the Mets rank 13th in MLB, with a particular strength in home runs, sitting 11th overall. Their ability to draw walks—ranking 6th in MLB—could provide an edge against Williams, a pitcher known for his high walk rate. Conversely, the Guardians’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and last in team batting average, which could make it difficult for them to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
With the Mets as betting favorites at -165, the projections lean toward a favorable outcome for them, especially considering their offensive strengths against a struggling Guardians lineup. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest. It will be intriguing to see if the Mets can leverage their offensive advantages and Peterson’s recent form to secure a much-needed win.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+150)Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Carlos Santana’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.9-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-180)David Peterson has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)Cleveland’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Brett Baty, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-175)The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+150)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)Gabriel Arias has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+16.40 Units / 164% ROI)