Rankings and Game Forecast: Orioles vs Phillies Analysis – Wednesday August 6, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Baltimore Orioles on August 6, 2025, in the third game of their interleague series. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with a 65-48 record, while the Orioles sit at 51-63, struggling to find consistency. In their last matchup, the Phillies secured a commanding 5-0 victory, showcasing their dominance and further illustrating the gap between these two teams this season.

Projected starters for this game include left-handed pitchers Ranger Suarez for the Phillies and Trevor Rogers for the Orioles. Suarez has been a key asset for Philadelphia, ranking as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He boasts an impressive 2.68 ERA this season and a solid 8-4 win/loss record over 16 starts. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate, hinting at potential regression moving forward. Suarez’s ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.1 innings per start, will be crucial against an Orioles lineup that ranks 17th in MLB offensively.

On the other hand, Trevor Rogers, while having an excellent 1.44 ERA, has only made 9 starts this season and his 3.69 xFIP indicates a less favorable outlook. Rogers pitched a remarkable complete game in his last outing, allowing just one earned run and striking out eight batters. However, his below-average strikeout rate and high walk projections could spell trouble against a potent Phillies offense that ranks 8th overall and 5th in batting average.

With the Phillies listed as significant betting favorites at -175, their strong offense and Suarez’s performance give them an edge. However, the projections suggest that while the Phillies are favored, they might not fully reflect their true winning potential in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Trevor Rogers’s four-seam fastball rate has risen by 10.5% from last season to this one (31.7% to 42.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Ranger Suarez’s 89.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 90.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (99% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+11.76 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 away games (+17.48 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 59% ROI)