Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Astros vs Marlins Match – 8/05/25

Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins

On August 5, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their series. The Marlins stand at 55-56, marking them as an average team this season. Meanwhile, the Astros are faring better with a 63-50 record. In their last outing, the Marlins fell to the Astros 8-2, adding to their struggles. However, the Marlins will look to rebound as they turn to right-hander Cal Quantrill, who pitched impressively in his last start, throwing five innings of scoreless baseball.

While Quantrill has had a rough season overall, his 4.79 ERA and 4.18 FIP suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, potentially signaling a turnaround. He will face Astros’ starter Kaleb Ort, who has also struggled, posting a 4.91 ERA with a limited number of innings pitched this year. Ort’s recent performances have indicated that he might not be the solution to the Astros’ pitching needs either.

On the offensive side, the Marlins rank 20th in MLB this season, but they boast the 10th best batting average despite a lack of power, sitting 25th in home runs. The Astros, on the other hand, rank 13th overall in offense with an impressive 3rd in batting average, showcasing their ability to get on base but also struggling with power as they rank just 14th in home runs.

The game’s total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a closely contested matchup. Both teams’ moneyline is currently at -110, indicating that betting markets are expecting a competitive game. With Miami having both the urgency to bounce back and the advantage of their recent pitching performance, they could provide better value for bettors than their current odds suggest.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Kaleb Ort today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Cam Smith has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.2° figure is among the highest in the game this year (#8 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Cal Quantrill’s 2139-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 16th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Despite posting a .397 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Stowers has experienced some positive variance given the .062 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+18.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 105 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.75 Units / 42% ROI)