Game Breakdown: Giants vs Pirates Team Stats and Insights – August 5, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 5, 2025, at PNC Park, both teams find themselves with their fair share of struggles this season. The Pirates currently sit at 49-64, reflecting a disappointing campaign, while the Giants are clawing their way through an average season with a record of 56-57. In their last encounter, the Pirates fell to the Giants, adding to their woes.

Pittsburgh will rely on right-hander Michael Burrows, who has an ERA of 3.88 in 12 starts this year. Although Burrows ranks 99th among MLB starters, which is considered average, his projections indicate he could struggle today, with an expected 4.4 innings pitched and an allowance of 2.2 earned runs. The Pirates’ offense ranks a dismal 30th in MLB, particularly lacking in power, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on any mistakes made by the opposing pitcher.

Logan Webb, the Giants’ projected starter, is a different story. Ranking 8th among MLB starters, Webb boasts a solid 3.31 ERA and has been unlucky according to projections, suggesting he could outperform expectations moving forward. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings today, allowing just 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.5 batters. This matchup appears favorable for Webb against a Pirates offense that has hit the fewest home runs in the league.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, both teams face challenges. The Pirates, with their low implied team total of 3.39 runs, are underdogs at +135, while the Giants have a more favorable moneyline of -155, suggesting a competitive edge. The projections indicate that this game could lean toward the Giants, especially with their elite pitching lined up against a struggling Pirates offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Logan Webb’s change-up usage has dropped by 8.3% from last season to this one (30.9% to 22.6%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Matt Chapman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Today, Casey Schmitt is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (85th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+135)
  Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Bart is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 110 games (+19.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Dominic Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 78% ROI)