Betting Odds and Picks for Reds vs Cubs – 8/04/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 4, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, boasting a strong record of 65-46, have been on a roll and are currently ranked 3rd in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Reds hold a respectable 58-54 record, placing them in the middle of the pack offensively. In their last outing, the Cubs emerged victorious against the Reds, winning 5-3, which adds extra motivation for Cincinnati as they seek to turn the tide.

On the mound, the Cubs will send Mike Soroka to the hill. Despite a challenging season reflected in his 3-8 record and an ERA of 4.87, Soroka’s 4.06 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting a potential for improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 1.9 earned runs, which can be considered solid for a starting pitcher.

Opposing him is Nick Lodolo, who has performed well this season with an 8-6 record and a stellar ERA of 3.09. However, his projection suggests he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.66, indicating he might have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Lodolo is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs.

The Cubs enter this matchup as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their status as a stronger team on paper. While the Reds have shown flashes of promise, their offense ranks 14th in MLB, which may hinder their ability to capitalize against a solid Cubs pitching staff. With both teams looking to build momentum, this game could be pivotal for their respective seasons.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  In the last 14 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Mike Soroka is projected to strikeout 6 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Dansby Swanson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph dropping to 85.3-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+22.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-195/+150)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)