Live Updates for Brewers vs Braves – 8/04/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face the Atlanta Braves on August 4, 2025, at Truist Park. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and both teams come in with contrasting fortunes. The Brewers sit comfortably in contention with a 67-44 record, showcasing their dominance this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are struggling at 47-63, reflecting a disappointing campaign.

In their most recent outings, the Braves managed to secure a 4-2 victory, while the Brewers dominated their last game with a staggering 14-3 win. The Braves’ offense ranks just 19th in MLB, and their struggles are evident in their below-average .228 batting average, which places them 21st. On the other hand, the Brewers boast a much stronger offensive presence, ranking 3rd in batting average at .263, although they sit lower in home runs at 22nd.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had a tough season with a 3-11 record and an ERA of 5.33. Fedde’s last start was uneventful, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings. In contrast, the Brewers will send Quinn Priester to the hill. Priester has been a bright spot for Milwaukee, sporting a 10-2 record and an impressive 3.27 ERA. His last outing, while not perfect, saw him give up only 2 earned runs despite some trouble with 8 hits and 2 walks.

With the Brewers favored at -145 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, they look to capitalize on their strong season against a faltering Braves squad. The projections suggest that this matchup could tilt in favor of the Brewers, especially with their potent offense and Priester’s solid performance on the mound.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Quinn Priester is projected to throw 85 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  In terms of his home runs, Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance this year. His 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Erick Fedde’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (36.8 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Matt Olson has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 14.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+8.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 69 games (+22.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)