Tigers vs Phillies Game Highlights – Sunday, August 3, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Philadelphia Phillies

On August 3, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Detroit Tigers in a crucial Interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, currently 62-48, are looking to bounce back after losing to the Tigers by a score of 7-5 in their last encounter. Meanwhile, the Tigers sit at 65-47, enjoying a strong season.

The Phillies plan to send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season with a 9-3 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.55. Sanchez is currently ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, making him an elite option. His high strikeout rate (26.3 K%) may serve him well against a Tigers hitting lineup that ranks 5th in the league in strikeouts. However, Sanchez’s projections do show he might allow too many hits today (5.3 on average), which could be a point of concern.

Charlie Morton will be on the hill for the Tigers, but despite his experience, he has struggled this season, posting a 7-8 record and a subpar ERA of 5.42. His projections are equally troubling, with expected earned runs at 3.2, which may hinder the Tigers’ chances against a solid Phillies offense that ranks 9th in MLB this season.

While the Phillies have been inconsistent lately, they have the talent and the favorable matchup that could lead to a strong performance. With a moneyline of -180 implying a win probability of 62%, they seem to be favored to take the series, especially with their playoff hopes on the line. In contrast, the Tigers, as underdogs with a +155 moneyline, have a lower implied team total of 3.68 runs for today’s contest.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  Charlie Morton has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.42 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.71 — a 0.71 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Riley Greene has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Detroit Tigers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-180)
  Among every team in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.332) provides evidence that Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck this year with his .286 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+9.66 Units / 13% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 64 of their last 110 games (+16.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)