Match Preview: Cardinals vs Padres Game Forecast – Sunday, August 3, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Diego Padres

On August 3, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Padres, with a record of 61-50, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Cardinals sit at 56-56, marking them as an average team this year. In their last encounter, the Padres fell to the Cardinals by a score of 8-5, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.

Dylan Cease is set to take the mound for San Diego, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings. Despite his struggles, Cease ranks as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating that he has the potential to turn things around. His projected performance today includes an average of 5.8 innings pitched, with a solid expectation of allowing just 2.2 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up walks and hits could be a concern against a Cardinals lineup that has been steady but not explosive.

Andre Pallante, projected to start for St. Louis, is having a decent season with a record of 6-7 and an average ERA of 4.62. Pallante pitched exceptionally well in his last start, throwing 7 innings without allowing any earned runs. However, with a high-groundball rate of 62%, he may struggle against a Padres offense that ranks 29th in home runs.

The Padres’ bullpen is the 1st best in MLB, which could play a crucial role if the game is close late. With a high implied team total of 4.67 runs, San Diego appears to have the upper hand in this matchup. The projections suggest that they may capitalize on their strengths against Pallante, setting the stage for an exciting game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Andre Pallante was on point in his last outing and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Willson Contreras has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Compared to average, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ramon Laureano’s true offensive talent to be a .324, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .048 disparity between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120/-150)
  Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)