Review the Latest Player Stats for Dodgers vs Rays – Friday, August 1st, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tampa Bay Rays

On August 1, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Los Angeles Dodgers at George M. Steinbrenner Field in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are looking to rebound after disappointing losses in their last outings, with the Rays falling 7-4 and the Dodgers losing 5-2. The stakes are high, as both clubs are eager to improve their standings.

The Rays, currently sitting at 54-56, are having an average season, while the Dodgers boast a solid record of 63-46, indicating they are having a great year. The matchup features Shane Baz, projected to start for Tampa Bay, going up against veteran Clayton Kershaw for Los Angeles. Baz, ranked 55th among starting pitchers according to advanced stats, has shown some resilience this season despite an ERA of 4.61, suggesting he may have been unlucky. His last start was promising, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Kershaw, on the other hand, is ranked 80th, with a better ERA of 3.62, but his xFIP of 4.37 suggests he has benefited from some good fortune. While both pitchers project to offer a similar number of innings, Kershaw’s recent performance raises questions, as he allowed 4 earned runs in his last start.

Offensively, the Rays rank 14th in MLB, but they excel in batting average (6th) and possess the league’s best stolen base rate. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense overall, highlighted by their 2nd in home runs this season. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be exciting, especially considering the close odds. The projections indicate a competitive game, and while betting markets favor the Dodgers slightly, the Rays’ strong bullpen—ranked 1st in MLB—could be a game-changer.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Clayton Kershaw’s 88.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 3rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Michael Conforto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Shane Baz has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.237) implies that Jake Mangum has been lucky this year with his .286 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 109 games (+12.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-8000)
  Jake Mangum has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+7.00 Units / 117% ROI)