Live Updates on Rockies vs Guardians – 7/29/25

Colorado Rockies logo

Colorado Rockies

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Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland Guardians

+160O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)
-185

The Cleveland Guardians host the Colorado Rockies at Progressive Field on July 29, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. The Guardians currently hold a record of 52-54, which reflects an average season, while the Rockies are struggling mightily at 28-78, marking one of the worst seasons in recent memory. Both teams played each other yesterday, with the Guardians suffering an 8-6 defeat, while the Rockies celebrated a rare victory by the same score.

Logan Allen is projected to take the mound for the Guardians, bringing a Win/Loss record of 6-9 and an ERA of 4.16 this season. While his ERA suggests he’s been somewhat lucky, his 4.67 SIERA indicates that he may face challenges as the season progresses. In his last outing, Allen pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, which adds to the concerns about his performance. He is, however, facing a Rockies offense that has the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving him an edge as a low-strikeout pitcher.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon is set to start for the Rockies. He has a respectable ERA of 3.13 but has only started 4 games this season, holding a 2-2 record. His last start was impressive, as he threw 6 shutout innings against their previous opponent. Yet, the projections suggest he may not sustain this success moving forward.

The Guardians, while ranking 28th in overall offensive performance this season, surprisingly boast a 19th rank in home runs, showcasing an ability to occasionally connect. In contrast, the Rockies sit 26th in offensive rankings, making this matchup particularly favorable for Cleveland. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Guardians favored with a moneyline of -195, there’s potential for Cleveland to capitalize on their home field advantage. The Guardians’ projected team total of 4.90 runs indicates expectations for their lineup to produce against a struggling Rockies team.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
    Given the 1.14 difference between Tanner Gordon’s 6.44 ERA and his 5.29 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and ought to see positive regression going forward.
    Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
  • Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
    Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
    Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
    Logan Allen’s 2243-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a substantial 104-rpm rise from last season’s 2139-rpm rate.
    Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
  • Nolan Jones – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
    The Colorado Rockies don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Nolan Jones is certain to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.
    Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
  • Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
    Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
    The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
    The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 101 games (+15.52 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
    Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)