Learn How to Watch the Phillies vs White Sox Game – July 28, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Philadelphia Phillies for the first game of their interleague series on July 28, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are having a tough season, currently sitting at 38-68, while the Phillies boast a much stronger record of 60-45, showcasing their competitive edge this year. In their last outing, the White Sox fell to the New York Yankees by a narrow margin of 5-4, further highlighting the struggles of a team that ranks 29th in MLB in both offensive production and team batting average.

The matchup features two pitchers with contrasting seasons. Davis Martin is projected to start for the White Sox, bringing a 2-8 record and a 3.89 ERA, which suggests some level of luck in his performance thus far. With a projected 4.9 innings pitched and an average of 3.3 earned runs allowed, his numbers indicate a challenging day ahead against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 7th in MLB offensively. Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies’ projected starter, has been nothing short of elite, holding a 9-2 record and an impressive 2.40 ERA. Sanchez is coming off a remarkable complete game performance where he allowed just one earned run and struck out 12 batters.

The projections favor the Phillies significantly as they face a White Sox team with a struggling bullpen ranked 29th overall. For bettors, the odds reflect this disparity, with the White Sox as underdogs at +185. Given Sanchez’s prowess and the Phillies’ overall offensive strength, this matchup appears heavily tilted in favor of Philadelphia. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive, yet potentially one-sided affair.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cristopher Sanchez will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Kyle Schwarber has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Davis Martin doesn’t generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Philadelphia Phillies batters collectively have been one of the best in the league this year (5th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Davis Martin’s 2398-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Luis Robert Jr.’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has lowered to 79.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Austin Slater has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+13.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.60 Units / 240% ROI)