See Picks and Betting Line for Athletics vs Astros – Sunday, July 27, 2025

Athletics

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on July 27, 2025, this matchup takes on added significance as the fourth game of their series. The Astros, boasting a strong record of 60-45, are positioned well within the American League West, while the Athletics, struggling at 45-62, continue to seek any signs of improvement. In their previous encounter, Houston secured a solid performance, but they’ll be looking to maintain momentum against a team that hasn’t quite found its footing this season.

On the mound, the Astros will send out left-handed pitcher Colton Gordon, who has had an average season with a 4-2 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 4.53. Despite being ranked as the 197th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections suggest he can pitch around 5.1 innings but may struggle against a high-strikeout Athletics offense. In contrast, J.T. Ginn, projected to start for Oakland, is ranked much higher at 59th. He carries a 1-2 record with an ERA of 4.50, and the projections indicate he might allow just 1.9 earned runs over approximately 4.9 innings—an encouraging sign for the Athletics.

Offensively, the Astros’ lineup ranks 12th overall in MLB, bolstered by the 2nd best batting average. Their recent performances from key hitters reflect a blend of power and efficiency. The Athletics, while ranking 8th offensively, have shown inconsistency, despite their recent hot streak from their best hitter, who recorded 17 hits over the past week.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and Houston favored at -135 on the moneyline, betting markets anticipate a close contest. As the Astros look to capitalize on their home advantage, they are keen to extend their lead in the tightly contested AL West.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  The Athletics outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Nicholas Kurtz has been lucky this year, notching a .439 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .344 — a .095 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Colton Gordon has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -8.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+12.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)