Get Betting Tips and Odds for Marlins vs Brewers – 7/27/2025

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

On July 27, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Miami Marlins at American Family Field in a crucial National League matchup. This game holds significance as the Brewers are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 61-43, despite a recent setback where they lost to the Marlins by a score of 7-4 the day before. Conversely, the Marlins enter this game with a 50-53 record, reflecting an average season thus far.

Milwaukee is projected to start Brandon Woodruff, who has shown impressive form with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.65 across three starts this season. His last outing on July 21 featured an outstanding performance where he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. Woodruff’s 49% fly ball rate could work in his favor against a Marlins offense that struggles with power, ranking 5th lowest in home runs this season.

Eury Perez, on the mound for Miami, holds a less favorable record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.23 across eight starts. Although Perez’s ERA is solid, projections suggest he may have been fortunate, indicating potential regression. Furthermore, he faces a tough challenge against a Brewers lineup that has shown some offensive potential, ranking 17th overall but posting the 13th best batting average in MLB.

Despite the Brewers’ struggles in their last game, their strong pitching staff and an offense that has been productive in moments suggest they could rebound nicely, making them the betting favorite with a moneyline of -150. The game total has been set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the confidence in both starting pitchers. Ultimately, the Brewers are poised to leverage their home-field advantage and Woodruff’s skill against a Marlins team facing uphill challenges in this matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Out of all SPs, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2669 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 94.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Miami Marlins offense projects to score the 3rd-least runs of all teams on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Brandon Woodruff and his 37.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today’s matchup going up against 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 away games (+16.90 Units / 60% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)