Player Predictions for Rockies vs Reds – July 13, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Colorado Rockies on July 13, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for both teams. Currently, the Reds stand at 49-47, hovering around .500 and looking to solidify their position in the Wild Card race. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal 22-73 record, marking one of the worst seasons in MLB.

In their previous game, the Reds showcased their offensive potential, winning decisively against the Rockies, who are in dire need of a turnaround. This matchup features an intriguing pitching duel: Nick Martinez for the Reds and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. Martinez, ranked as the 99th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, has had an average season, boasting a 6-9 record and a 4.85 ERA. However, projections suggest he has been unlucky, as his 4.11 xERA indicates he should perform better moving forward.

On the other hand, Gomber has struggled mightily this year, with an 0-2 record and an alarming 5.92 ERA. He’s projected to allow 3.5 earned runs over 5.0 innings, which could spell trouble against a Reds offense ranked 15th overall, showcasing average talent. Their best hitter has been hot lately, posting a .368 batting average and a 1.263 OPS over the past week.

With the Reds favored heavily in the betting market, the current moneyline stands at -235, suggesting an implied team total of 5.70 runs. Given the Rockies’ struggles both offensively and on the mound, this matchup heavily favors Cincinnati, who looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Rockies’ ongoing woes.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Austin Gomber’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this year (88.4 mph) below where it was last season (90.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado’s 88.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Elly De La Cruz has strong power (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber struggles to strike batters out (17th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+13.87 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+100/-130)
  Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)