Game Breakdown: Nationals vs Brewers Head-to-Head Insights 7/11/2025

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 11, 2025, they are looking to continue their strong season, holding a record of 53-40. The Brewers have recently shown their strength, having won their last game against the Nationals by a score of 3-2. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling this season with a 38-55 record and are coming off a disappointing loss, where they fell heavily to their opponent 8-1.

In this matchup, the Brewers are projected to start D.L. Hall, a left-handed pitcher who has quietly put together an impressive season thus far with a stellar ERA of 2.29. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.57. Hall’s recent performance shows promise, especially following a last start on August 30, 2024, where he went a complete seven innings without allowing any earned runs.

Mitchell Parker will take the mound for the Nationals. He has had a tough time this year, with a 4.72 ERA and a challenging last outing where he allowed four earned runs over six innings. This season, Parker’s projections indicate that he may struggle against a Brewers offense that ranks 16th overall in MLB but boasts an elite 2nd place in stolen bases, a strong point that could exploit any weaknesses in Washington’s defense.

With the Brewers labeled as significant betting favorites, they are projected for a high team total of 4.96 runs today, indicating confidence in their lineup’s ability to capitalize against an underperforming Nationals team. As the two teams clash for the first time in this series, the Milwaukee Brewers will look to solidify their position while the Nationals attempt to find some spark in a challenging season.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Mitchell Parker (35.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 4 FB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Nathaniel Lowe may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Milwaukee Brewers has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Quinn Priester in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-205)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 90 games (+13.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.02 Units / 10% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)