Chicago Cubs
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-105
On July 10, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup at Target Field. The Cubs currently hold a strong record of 54-38, positioning themselves among the top teams in MLB, while the Twins sit at 45-47, reflecting an average season thus far. Notably, the Cubs come into this game fresh off a thrilling victory yesterday, which adds to the momentum they’ve been building.
The pitching matchup features Chris Paddack for the Twins, who has struggled this season with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 4.64. Projections suggest he will pitch about 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which indicates a challenging outing could be in store. Paddack’s low strikeout rate (17.0 K%) could be a concern against a Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB, showcasing their power with 137 home runs this season.
On the other side, Colin Rea, projected to start for the Cubs, has a better record of 6-3 and an ERA of 4.13, although his underlying metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year. Rea’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.2 innings and allow 3.3 earned runs on average. While his strikeout numbers are below average, he faces a Twins offense that ranks just 18th overall, further enhancing his chances.
With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, this matchup leans towards a competitive scoring affair. The Twins’ bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB, could play a key role in keeping the game close, especially as they look to capitalize on the Cubs’ slight vulnerabilities. Bettors might find value in the Twins, who have a moneyline of +105, reflecting a close contest ahead.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Colin Rea’s four-seam fastball rate has increased by 25.2% from last season to this one (19.9% to 45.1%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 91.4-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-115)The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)In his previous game started, Chris Paddack conceded a staggering 9 earned runs.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Minnesota’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #8 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 76 games (+8.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+35.00 Units / 438% ROI)