Get Bets and Betting Tips for Mets vs Orioles – 7/09/2025

New York Mets

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the New York Mets on July 9, 2025, they face significant challenges in their ongoing campaign. The Orioles currently hold a record of 40-50, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Mets sit at a solid 53-39, showcasing their prowess. In their last matchup, the Mets edged out the Orioles, adding pressure on Baltimore to turn things around in this second game of the series.

The pitching matchup features Tomoyuki Sugano for the Orioles and David Peterson for the Mets. Sugano, ranked as the 291st best starting pitcher in MLB, has posted a 6-5 record with an average ERA of 4.44. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate, with a higher expected ERA of 5.76, indicating potential struggles ahead. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs, which could pose a significant threat given Baltimore’s average-ranked offense.

Conversely, Peterson comes in with a 6-4 record and an impressive ERA of 3.18, though his underlying numbers also suggest he may not sustain this level of performance. He is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs on average. The Mets’ offense ranks 7th in MLB, bolstered by their ability to hit home runs, which will be crucial against a struggling Orioles bullpen ranked 22nd.

With a game total set at a high 10.0 runs, the betting landscape favors the Mets, who have a moneyline of -150, implying a strong chance of victory. The projections indicate that despite the Orioles’ underdog status, they could surprise given the right circumstances, particularly if their best hitters can capitalize on Peterson’s weaknesses.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  David Peterson’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (47.7% vs. 42.5% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Brett Baty tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  In his last GS, Tomoyuki Sugano wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ramon Urias will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 27.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.98 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)