Weather for Marlins vs Reds Game – 7/8/25

Miami Marlins

@

Cincinnati Reds

On July 8, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park in a matchup that reflects the contrasting trajectories of both teams this season. The Reds, currently sitting at 46-45, are performing at an average level, while the Marlins lag behind at 41-48, indicating a below-average season. In their previous encounter, the Reds emerged victorious, building on their relatively stable performance.

Nick Martinez is projected to take the mound for Cincinnati, bringing a 6-8 record and an ERA of 4.20 into this matchup. Despite ranking as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB, which mirrors his average status, Martinez faces a Marlins offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 26th in home runs this season. His high-flyball profile (39 FB%) could play to his advantage against a team that has hit just 80 home runs, the fifth fewest in MLB.

Eury Perez, on the other hand, gets the ball for Miami, sporting a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.50 after starting five games this year. Although he ranks as the 65th best starting pitcher, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unfortunate. With a projected average of 4.6 innings pitched and allowing 2.6 earned runs today, his performance will be critical as he seeks to turn around his luck.

As for the offenses, the Reds rank 14th overall, while the Marlins sit at 21st in Power Rankings. This disparity suggests that Cincinnati’s lineup has a clear edge, offering a compelling narrative for bettors looking at the Reds, who hold a moneyline of -125 and have a favorable implied team total of 4.66 runs. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup has potential for scoring, setting the stage for an intriguing contest at Great American Ball Park.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Eury Perez’s high usage percentage of his fastball (55.5% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Stowers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 97.4-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Extreme groundball batters like Elly De La Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #27 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.