Follow the Live Updates for Marlins vs Reds – 7/7/2025

Miami Marlins

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins on July 7, 2025, this matchup will mark the first game of their series. Cincinnati holds a record of 46-44, reflecting an average season, while Miami is struggling at 40-48, indicating a below-average performance. The Reds are projected to start Brady Singer, who has had a mixed season with a 7-6 record and a 4.36 ERA. In contrast, the Marlins will send Janson Junk to the mound, who has fared slightly better with a 2-1 record and a commendable 3.62 ERA.

Cincinnati’s offense ranks 14th in MLB, showing average talent across the board, while Miami’s offense, ranked 16th, has been characterized by a solid batting average but struggles mightily with home runs, sitting 26th in the league. This dynamic could favor Singer, a high-flyball pitcher whose flyballs might not lead to many home runs against a power-challenged Marlins lineup.

Recent statistics suggest that Singer’s projections indicate he will pitch six innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters. On the other hand, Junk is expected to log 5 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, with his projections suggesting he may be due for better results given his strong xFIP at 3.02.

While both teams have shown inconsistencies, the Reds’ average implied team total of 4.76 runs suggests that sportsbooks view them as slightly favored to take this matchup, considering their overall offensive capabilities and starting pitcher performance. As the Reds look to gain ground in the standings, this game could be pivotal for them against a struggling Marlins squad.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Janson Junk performed well in his previous GS and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Dane Myers is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under Total Bases
  Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters collectively rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.30 Units / 43% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 62% ROI)