
Tampa Bay Rays

Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)+110
On July 7, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park in what promises to be a competitive matchup. The Tigers are enjoying a strong season, boasting a record of 57-34, while the Rays sit at 49-41. Each team is looking to secure an important win, especially after the Tigers triumphed over the Rays in their last meeting on July 6, winning decisively 7-2.
Detroit’s Keider Montero is projected to start, holding a 3-1 record with an ERA of 4.02 this season. Despite being ranked the 308th best starting pitcher in MLB, his numbers suggest he has benefitted from some luck, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.64. Montero’s projections for this game are modest, as he is expected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing around 2.9 earned runs.
In contrast, Tampa Bay will rely on Shane Baz, who is significantly performing at a higher level. With an 8-3 record and a 4.33 ERA, Baz ranks 62nd among MLB starting pitchers. He is projected to fare better than Montero, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs in 5.4 innings while striking out about 5.4 batters.
Both teams feature strong offenses, with the Tigers ranked 6th and the Rays at 10th in MLB. However, the projections favor Detroit’s lineup, which has been more potent recently, highlighted by their offensive firepower ranking 8th in batting average and home runs. Conversely, the Rays have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 1st, indicating their speed on the base paths.
With a game total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. The current moneyline shows Detroit at +110 and Tampa Bay at -130, reflecting a competitive atmosphere that will keep bettors and fans engaged throughout the game.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Shane Baz has tallied 17.2 outs per start this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jonathan Aranda has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.3-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under StrikeoutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Keider Montero in the 19th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Extreme flyball hitters like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Parker Meadows hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 52% ROI)