Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-115/-105)-190
The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros, two of the top teams in MLB, face off today in the third game of their interleague series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, boasting a 56-34 record, currently sit atop their division and have an exceptional offense that ranks 1st in the league. Meanwhile, the Astros are not far behind at 54-35, holding down the 2nd spot in their division and possessing an offense ranked 8th overall.
In their last game on July 5, the Dodgers fell to the Astros by a score of 6-4, a disappointing result as they look to rebound and capitalize on their potent lineup. The Dodgers’ offensive prowess is underscored by their league-leading 141 home runs, a factor that could play a significant role against Astros pitcher Ryan Gusto, who has struggled with fly balls this season.
On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start Emmet Sheehan, who has had a strong season with a 2.25 ERA and a solid xFIP of 1.56. The advanced projections suggest he may be poised for even better results moving forward. In contrast, Ryan Gusto has not been as effective, carrying a 4.90 ERA and ranking as a below-average pitcher. His recent performance includes a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings, raising concerns about his ability to contain the Dodgers’ explosive offense.
With the Dodgers’ elite lineup facing a struggling pitcher, the projections favor Los Angeles to outscore their rivals significantly. This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially given the high Game Total of 9.0 runs. The Dodgers’ current moneyline stands at -195, reflecting their strong win probability, making them a team to watch as they aim to bounce back and assert their dominance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Houston Astros have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Short, Cooper Hummel, Cam Smith).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)In his last outing, Emmet Sheehan performed well and gave up 1 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Typically, bats like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ryan Gusto.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (+165)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 38 games (+17.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.25 Units / 35% ROI)