Player Prop Picks for Angels vs Blue Jays – 7/6/2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on July 6, 2025, at Rogers Centre, they come off a strong showing in their previous game, where they secured a decisive win. Currently, the Blue Jays are enjoying a solid season with a record of 51-38, while the Angels sit at a modest 43-45. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and the stakes are high for both teams.

The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 6-6 record and a 4.18 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 122nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Gausman projects to pitch 5.5 innings and strike out 6.1 batters on average today, which could be crucial against an Angels lineup that ranks 5th in home runs this season. However, Gausman’s high flyball rate could give the Angels an opportunity to capitalize on their power.

On the other hand, Tyler Anderson takes the hill for the Angels. With a 2-5 record and a 4.12 ERA, Anderson is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings. He projects to allow 3.4 earned runs and 5.6 hits on average, which could spell trouble against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 12th overall and boasts a strong .267 batting average, good for 4th in MLB.

The Blue Jays are favored with a moneyline of -185, suggesting a high implied team total of 5.42 runs. Given their offensive prowess and Gausman’s potential to limit damage, Toronto looks poised to continue their winning ways against an Angels team that struggles with pitching depth, reflected in their 30th-ranked bullpen.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen profiles as the worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Kevin Gausman has relied on his sinker 5.3% less often this year (0.1%) than he did last year (5.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Davis Schneider usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+14.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Mike Trout has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)