Review the Reds vs Phillies Match Preview and Winning Probability – July 4th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Citizens Bank Park on July 4, 2025, to take on the Philadelphia Phillies, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this exciting National League matchup. The Phillies currently hold a solid 51-36 record, while the Reds are just above average at 45-42. Both teams are coming off victories, with the Phillies winning 5-1 in their last game against their rivals, and the Reds edging out their opponents 8-4.

Starting for the Phillies is Jesus Luzardo, who has had a decent season, boasting a 7-4 record and a 4.06 ERA. While his ERA is above average, his 3.25 xFIP indicates that he has faced some unfortunate luck, suggesting he could improve going forward. Luzardo is projected to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing about 2.5 earned runs, and he possesses a knack for striking out batters, averaging 6.8 strikeouts per game.

On the mound for the Reds will be Andrew Abbott, who has enjoyed a standout season with a remarkable 1.79 ERA and an impressive 7-1 record. However, his 4.09 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of performance. Abbott projects for 5.2 innings today but is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs, which is a concern given the potential of the Phillies’ offense, ranked 9th in MLB.

Despite the Reds having a solid offense, the projections lean toward the Phillies, who are heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -155. With a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, they may capitalize on Abbott’s potential regression. This matchup could be crucial for both teams as they jockey for position in the standings, making it a must-watch event for fans and bettors alike.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Andrew Abbott’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.1% vs. 46.5% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all SPs, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph ranks in the 88th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Kyle Schwarber has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 97.7-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 84 games (+14.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+12.30 Units / 176% ROI)