Bets and Betting Tips for Twins vs Tigers – June 28, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on June 28, 2025, they do so with momentum on their side after a strong start to the season, currently holding a record of 51-32. Meanwhile, the Twins sit at 40-42, struggling to find consistent success. This matchup is particularly important as it marks the second game in a series where both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League Central.

In their last outing, the Tigers showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 5th in MLB and 8th in team batting average, while the Twins have been average offensively, sitting at 16th in MLB. The Tigers are expected to start Casey Mize, who has been effective this season with a 2.88 ERA, although advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky thus far. Mize’s average projection of allowing 2.5 earned runs today could be tested against a Twins lineup that ranks 19th in batting average.

On the mound for the Twins will be Bailey Ober, who has had his struggles with a 4.90 ERA this year. While both pitchers are right-handed and projected to pitch similar innings, Ober’s low strikeout rate (18.3 K%) could be a concern against a high-strikeout Tigers offense, which ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts.

The Tigers enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, indicating a strong belief in their ability to secure a win, especially with their impressive home record at Comerica Park. The projections suggest a strong offensive showing, with an implied team total of 4.62 runs for Detroit. With both teams looking to gain an edge in this pivotal series, fans can expect a competitive matchup as the Tigers aim to continue their success against the Twins.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Trevor Larnach has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Casey Mize has utilized his change-up 8% more often this season (26.1%) than he did last season (18.1%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 83 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 57% ROI)