Find the Official Lineup for Phillies vs Braves – 6/27/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 27, 2025, they find themselves in a tough spot, currently sitting at 4th in the National League East with a record of 37-43. The Braves have managed to stay competitive despite their struggles, but their recent performance has been less than stellar, having lost their last game against the Phillies by a score of 4-0 on June 26. Meanwhile, the Phillies, holding a strong 2nd place in the division with a 47-34 record, are riding high despite a recent loss of their own, where they fell to the New York Mets 2-1.

In this matchup, the Braves will send Bryce Elder to the mound, who has had a rocky season with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.77. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he has been a bit unlucky this year, with a more favorable xFIP of 3.65. On the other hand, the Phillies will counter with Mick Abel, who has been equally inconsistent, showing flashes of potential but struggling with a 4.19 xFIP. Abel’s recent outing saw him allow 4 earned runs over just 3 innings, raising concerns about his endurance.

Hitting-wise, the Braves come into this game with an offense ranked 18th in MLB, while the Phillies boast a healthier 10th place ranking. The Braves’ best hitter has been performing decently, with a 0.841 OPS, but the Phillies’ top bat has been even better, with a 0.902 OPS and 24 home runs this season.

With the Braves favored at -160, bettors might find value in backing Atlanta, hoping they can turn their season around against a rival team. The high game total of 9.5 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect an offensive showcase, making for an intriguing matchup in Truist Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 40.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 29.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Bryce Elder projects for an average of 5.7 hits in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)